Executive Summary (TL;DR)

EURUSD is observed in a macro downtrend (Daily) but is currently experiencing a micro upward correction (H1). The price is testing an important dynamic resistance zone at the SMA 50 area on the H4 chart (1.14230 - 1.14400 range). Following the main trend, the strategic approach focuses on Sell opportunities in that resistance area with a rational target at the 1.13750 level and risk protection at 1.14650.

Quantitative Matrix & Market Structure

Through multi-timeframe observation (H1, H4, and Daily), the market structure reveals divergence. On the Daily chart, EURUSD is clearly printing a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the major bearish trend. However, on the H1 and H4 charts, the price is attempting an upward correction, testing the upper boundary of that downward structure.

Technical Indicators Synthesis

• Trend Baseline (SMA 50 - Blue): Price action on the Daily chart is far below the blue line (downtrend). On H1, the price crossed above this line, signaling a short-term push from buyers.
• Momentum (EMA 8 & 24): On the H1 timeframe, the red line crosses above the green line (temporary Buy momentum). On the Daily chart, the position remains reversed, indicating strong major selling momentum.
• Confirmation (RSI 14): RSI on H4 and H1 is in the neutral zone (50-51), meaning the market is balanced and has ample room to move once a definite direction is confirmed.

Important Levels